For six quarters of the season, the Buffalo Bills defense looked like an FCS program invited to open the season against Ohio State. They were a movable object facing an unstoppable force. Eventually, the team tightened up and turned a 28-3 blowout into a 31-20 respectable loss. How did the defense fall behind the curve against the Los Angeles Chargers, and did they return to form?
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The above graph illustrates the “points above expected” for each play run by the Chargers on Sunday. Effectively, it asks: Given the down-and-distance and the current spot on the field, did the Chargers accomplish what they should have?