During the Buffalo Bills’ 6-1 start to the 2022 NFL regular season, we had a great deal of fun checking in once per week on the team’s place in the AFC playoff picture. After the team’s 27-17 win over the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football following their bye week, the Bills were the clear top team in the conference, and the three major playoff-projecting models we follow each week agreed.
- Football Outsiders gave the Bills a 71.4% chance at securing the No. 1 seed in the playoffs
- The New York Times and its playoff simulator gave the Bills a 65% chance at securing the top seed
- FiveThirtyEight gave the Bills a 68% chance at securing the top seed
Today, the Bills have dropped two consecutive three-point contests—20-17 to the New York Jets in Week 9, and then 33-30 in overtime to the Minnesota Vikings yesterday—to fall to 6-3.