One of my favorite NFL Draft exercises is to take the players drafted by the Buffalo Bills and predict their careers. After exhaustive exposure to years of debates about how sixth-round picks have starter upside and first-round choices who don’t make the Pro Bowl are busts, I decided to use historical data to model incoming rookies. With size, athletic testing, and college experience taken into account, I try to project realistic career trajectories for these players.
This project is now entering year four. You can see each of the past iterations here:
And now it’s time to look through the 2021 group.