One of the most famous projection systems out there just spit out its 2025 forecast and things don’t look great for the Red Sox. Baseball Prospectus first released its PECOTA projections way back in 2003. I don’t know whether it was actually the first sabremetric projection system, but it was certainly the first one most people had heard of and it became a flashpoint for the statistical debates that would divide he baseball community for the foreseeable future.
With respect to the 2025 Red Sox, it’s primed to become a flashpoint again: PECOTA projects the Red Sox to win just 78 games and finish in last place in AL East.