The Red Sox (74-56) are 7 GB the Rays (80-48) in the AL East, but they are 3.5 GA in the Wild Card Race. If the season ended last night, Boston would be playing at the Yankees (76-52) in the winner-take-all WC Game.
B-Ref currently gives the Red Sox a 73% chance to make the postseason, though only a 1.4% chance at winning the division.
Boston has won five of its last seven games, but has actually fallen one game further out of first in that time because Tampa Bay has won nine of its last 10.