The 2023 MLB trade deadline has passed. The major moves of the season have been made. Teams will still tweak their rosters with call-ups and waiver claims. There will even be a handful of trades, as some minor leaguers can still be dealt. Mostly though, we can now declare that teams are what they are.
Through Wednesday's games, 20 of the 30 teams still had better than a one in 10 shot at the postseason, per my simulations. The teams in that group have a wide range of probabilities. The Atlanta Braves made the postseason in all 10,000 sims during my latest run; the New York Yankees made it just 1,241 times (or 12.