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NBA training camp starts next week, and as teams prepare for preseason, it's time to make projections for how all 30 will perform this upcoming season.
My annual projections combine box score numbers from my SCHOENE projection system, adjusted plus-minus data and my guesses at rotations for every team based on current injuries.
After a dismal year for the projections, which correctly predicted just nine of 30 teams relative to their over/under win totals last season, I spent much of this summer revisiting the model. The big change was weighting the luck-adjusted RAPM portion of player projections, based on data from Krishna Narsu, using minutes played over the previous three seasons.