This is a thought exercise I like to use to manage my own expectations for an upcoming season. What’s the best that can happen and what is the worst* that can happen?
* It is at this point that I knock on wood using a horseshoe while rubbing a rabbit’s foot and plucking four-leaf clovers. I also use this opportunity to clarify that I’m not talking about catastrophic injuries (see Hayward, Gordon), World War III, or meteorites cracking the Earth like an egg. We have enough things to worry about.
Basically if you plot all of the season’s fairly reasonable outcomes and come up with a nice bell curve of probabilities, how far out are the outliers?