For all the factors that go into the outcome of a playoff series, from health to matchups to stars taking over to adjustments over the course of the season to favorable bounces, their outcome can typically best be predicted by considering just a few key variables.
In particular, three factors tend to have the most predictive power: the regular-season performance of the two teams as measured by point differential, their head-to-head record in the regular season and home-court advantage.
So, using the way those criteria have predicted the outcome of best-of-seven series since 2000, let's rank this year's eight first-round matchups by their chances of producing an upset.