In American football, the “4th and 1” scenario is a critical moment that can define the outcome of a game. Teams face a tough decision: should they go for it or punt the ball away?
This high-stakes situation is more than just a gamble; it’s a calculated risk based on success rates and expected points.
Statistics show that going for it on 4th and 1 has a 66.5% chance of success, yielding an expected value of 0.21 points. However, failure means giving the opposing team a significant advantage, equivalent to 4.83 points.
When these probabilities are combined, the expected value of going for it is 1.