In American football, the 4th down represents a critical juncture where teams must make strategic decisions that could alter the game’s course. Coaches often face the dilemma of whether to punt the ball, attempt a field goal, or go for it to gain the necessary yards.
With the breakeven rate and expected conversion rate playing pivotal roles, these decisions are far from straightforward.
The point expectancy for a PAT stands at 93.7% since 2015, while a 2-point conversion holds a 48.1% success rate but is worth double. This makes every choice on the 4th down an active decision that can swing the game.