A relatively newer metric that bettors lean on for their NFL picks is Expected Points Added (EPA). Much like the popular Expected Goals (xG) analysis in soccer, which measures the expectancy of goals by a team from the quality of their chances, the EPA does a similar thing in American Football.
The EPA helps to identify teams which are surpassing or failing to meet projected standards by combining different factors. In more recent times, this advanced metric has played a greater role in handicapping American Football matches, but what exactly is it, and what is its real role in forecasting?