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The Orioles’ playoff odds rise and fall with every game. How are they actually computed?

As disheartening as a three-game sweep to the Toronto Blue Jays was for the Orioles this week, their surprising start to the season still has them as a .500 club with 40% of their games completed.

It’s unclear if the top pick in the 2021 draft will indeed go to the team with the worst record, but if so, the Orioles have probably already won their way out of contention for that. The only other incentive this season, then, is reaching the expanded playoffs, in which the top two teams in each division and two wild cards qualify.