Strategy for the Spanish Grand Prix is delicately poised between a one-stop and a two-stop race.
If Mercedes, which starts the race with its two cars on the front row, is able to pull a gap on the rest of the field, they are likely to opt for a risk-averse one-stop. Only a much closer race in which one of the cars behind poses a genuine threat of an undercut is likely to take them off that course.
The way to tell the difference between a one-stop and two-stop strategy will be the timing and tyre choice at the first stop.