Despite the team coming up short in what was the consensus biggest game of the season, both Five Thirty Eight and American Soccer Analysis calculate the current likelihood of Atlanta United winning the Supporters’ Shield at 73%.
While both models use sound, data-driven techniques to simulate the most likely final season table—and while these projections have been a helpful point of reference throughout the season—the trouble is that the few number of games remaining skews the “truthiness” of the situation. Because of the exceedingly slim margins currently separating Atlanta United and Red Bulls, the cited 73% figure may swing wildly with each match outcome from here on out.