Football Outsiders and FiveThirtyEight both released their NFL predictions today. The two sites use different methodologies but neither statistics-based computer model likes the Falcons’ playoff chances very much.
FO ran 25,000 simulations of the season and the average number of victories predicted for Falcons is seven, last in the NFC South. Its forecast, based on its Defense-adjusted Value over Average projections, gives the Falcons a 24.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, the second-worst odds in the NFC behind the 49ers (9.2 percent).
FiverThirtyEight ran 100,000 NFL season simulations using its Elo ratings and its average prediction comes out to 7.