Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs wrote this today:
After all, we keep getting data and still, as a group, players that have been caught using PEDs have not outperformed their projections as a group in any time frame before being caught nor underperformed as a group in any time frame after being caught.
That may be true, when you factor in all the middling players caught using PED’s. But who projected 38 HR for a 38-year-old Rafael Palmiero, or 65 for oft-injured Mark McGwire, then 35? Did anyone really expect 50 HR for 32-year-old Brady Anderson (previous high, 21) or 73 HR for 36-year-old Barry Bonds?