Just over four years ago, something incredible happened in the English Premier League. A team from England's Midlands region, who had avoided relegation by only the narrowest of margins at the end of the previous season, somehow contrived to finish as Premier League Champions. That team was Leicester City. The story of Leicester's 2015-2016 season is routinely described as one of the greatest Cinderella stories in the history of sport, and was described at the time as a once-in-a-lifetime event. In other words, we didn't expect to see anything like it again in the next fifty years. We know we're tempting fate by asking this question so early on in the season, but might we actually be about to see history repeat itself four years later with another team from the Midlands? Are Aston Villa about to "do a Leicester?"
When Leicester City won the championship, they nearly bankrupted a few sports betting companies. They were listed as 5000/1 to lift the trophy with some bookmakers, compared to odds of only 3/1 for them to be relegated from the top division. That’s a huge figure. To put that in context, it’s more unlikely than a player logging into an online slots website and hitting the jackpot with their first spin of the reels in the case of most online slots games. Sports betting is more predictable than chance-based gambling. There shouldn’t be a scenario in the world where you’re more likely to win something from Fluffy Too than you are from picking one of twenty teams to win a soccer championship, but that underlines how unlikely Leicester’s epic triumph was. Nobody thought they had a prayer. Aston Villa’s odds of winning the league might not be listed quite so far out as Leicesters were, but that’s only because betting companies have learned from the mistake.
The comparisons between the sides couldn’t be easier to make. Last season Aston Villa avoided relegation on the last day of the season by salvaging a 1-1 draw away at West Ham United. Had other results on the day not gone in their favor, they would have been down, and they could have had few complaints. The team had been awful, with the performances of team captain and local hero Jack Grealish being the only real bright spark in a squad that looked ill-equipped for top-flight football. Questions were asked about Dean Smith's competency as a coach at this level, and there were suggestions that he might lose his job regardless of the fact that the Villains stayed up. Villa's board wasn't swayed by the press. Smith kept his job and started the process of rebuilding his team over the summer.
The most important piece of business Smith did was signing Grealish to a new long-term contract. During the first few weeks of the summer, there were rumors that Manchester United had their eyes on the player, but if that were the case, a bid never materialized. Even if it had, Grealish might not have been tempted. He's said repeatedly that he views Villa as "his club," and he takes great pride in wearing the captain's armband for the team he supported as a child. Having secured Grealish, Smith turned his attention to the goalkeeper's position, which had been filled on a temporary basis by the excellent-but-aging Pepe Reina for the final few months of last season. He brought in Emiliano Martinez from Arsenal in what already looks to have been a very smart piece of business, and then added Bertrand Traore from Lyon on the right wing. His best work, though, was still to come.
Several clubs wanted to sign striker Ollie Watkins from Brentford. Had the 24-year-old forward been playing at a lesser-regarded Premier League club, he'd probably already have been on the radar of one of the bigger teams. The fact that he was plying his trade in the Championship meant clubs like Villa and the teams around them had a chance of bringing him in. Villa won the race, and Watkins has already started repaying his $35m transfer fee in goals. He probably wouldn't have been able to do that quite so fast if it wasn't for the arrival of Ross Barkley from Chelsea on loan. There were murmurs of discontent among a few fans when Barkley's arrival was announced. There had been suspicions about his temperament and consistency at both Everton and Chelsea, and at the age of 26, there were questions about whether he'd ever deliver on his obvious natural talent and potential. Those voices are quieter now. Barkley's performances in his first few games in a Villa shirt have been sensational. He, Grealish, and Watkins are playing together like they've been doing it all their lives. Villa has become a totally different proposition in the space of just a few months - and now they're flying high towards the top of the table.
The high point, obviously, was the team’s phenomenal 7-2 demolition of reigning champions Liverpool. That game made headlines all over the world. Prior to that, Liverpool had barely lost a game in the league for two years. Only one year ago, they were the reigning European and World Champions. Nobody scores seven goals past Liverpool, let alone a team that couldn't score for love nor money three months ago. Somehow, Villa did. Watkins helped himself to a hat trick within the first half. Grealish provided three assists for his teammates, and scored two of his own. Barkley, who made his debut that day, also laid on a pair of assists and scored a goal to round his day off. Liverpool didn't know what had hit them. Football fans all over the world weren't too sure what was going on either.
There might be something to be said for the idea that football as a whole is a little strange this season. All over Europe, leagues aren't looking as they normally should. Barcelona and Real Madrid are off to slow starts in Spain, and Real Sociedad are on top of the table. RB Leipzig is above Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund in Germany. Lille sits above Paris Saint Germain in France, and AC Milan leads in Italy after years in the wilderness. Even in England, Aston Villa isn't the only team upsetting the odds. Everton is also ripping up the form book. At the time of writing, Liverpool are third, Chelsea are eighth, and both Manchester clubs are mid-table. These are bizarre times for the sport, but that doesn't change the fact that if Aston Villa can do the unthinkable this season, their achievement will be every bit as special as Leicester's was.
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