Average career WAR
No. 1 pick: 21.3
No. 2 pick: 14.4
No. 3 pick: 12.5
The D-backs, who hold the No. 1 pick this year, are no doubt aware of this data.
Drafting philosophy can be as complicated as you want to make it -- particularly in this era of signing-bonus limits -- but there is one constant that remains true: You have no idea what the future holds, so take the best player available regardless of need.
When I was the Rockies' general manager, we ended up with Troy Tulowitzki with the No.