A few months ago, I did an in-depth statistical analysis on rookie QBs who struggled to the extent Josh Rosen did in 2018. The main takeaway from that article was this: Since 2000, no rookie quarterback taken outside of the #1 overall pick who struggled as badly as Rosen did has gone on to become a franchise QB.
The numbers don’t lie. And the numbers say that Rosen is far more likely—by about a 3:1 margin—to be a bust than a franchise QB.
Nothing that’s happened in the past three months—the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury, the retooling of the offensive line, the meager WR/TE signings—has changed the likelihood of that outcome for me.