Yesterday, in our discussion of the 2023 QB draft class, UACardinalsFan reminded us of Brett Kollmann’s excellent video of “Why Only 30% of 1st Round QBs Succeed.”
After reflecting on why a number of his pre-draft evaluations turned out to be inaccurate, Brett came to a realization that he had to move away from the three traditional pillars he had been applying to QB evaluations:
- Polished Mechanics
- Pocket Passing Prowess
- Air Raid QBs Don’t Work in NFL
With the way in which NFL offensive coordinators have adopted and embraced the RPOs (run/pass options) that college programs have popularized, Brett came up with three new pillars that he is now applying to college QB prospects:
- Tools over Mechanics
- Coach-ability over Polish
- Destination Matters
Brett makes the salient point that while he made the mistake of rating Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen higher than Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, the fact that Allen and Mahomes were drafted by teams with winning records and were paired with offensive coaches (Brian Daboll and Andy Reid) who already had a background in coordinating spread RPO-style offenses gave them a distinct advantage coming's g into the NFL over Darnold and Rosen who were drafted by less talented teams with less adaptable coaches.