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Why you should bet the over on Alabama's early games

Alabama and Louisville enter Saturday's season opener with new faces in crucial spots.

The Tide features new starting receivers and defensive backs, new coordinators and (potentially) a new starting quarterback. Louisville QB Jawon Pass will replace Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and the Cardinals replaced defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon after a disastrous year.

The Alabama-Louisville line has fluctuated, but sits at Bama -24 or Bama -24.5 as of this writing. And I want nothing to do with it.

My handicapping favors Alabama by 21. With so much change, and the 3-point premium against my number, I'm not risking money on the Tide.