Immediately after the Iron Bowl, we began spitballing on predicted lines for this game. Initial offerings were roughly in line with my quick guess — about -4, UGA.
When the line opened last night, it was at -6.5, nearly a full touchdown for the Bulldogs. It seemed a bit high to me, given the relative SOS and just a cursory memory of where the teams lie in relation to their efficiency data. I still thought that -3 was a better pick.
Imagine, then, my surprise,when I got into the datasets this morning and discovered that not only are the Bulldogs not favored by a touchdown, but based on metrics and algorithmic predictions, the entirely wrong team is favored.