The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2016 season as the favorite to win the NFC East and make the playoffs, but the numbers aren't as certain. In fact, they line up right down the middle.
According to Football Outsiders, the Cowboys have a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs and they project them to win 8.8 games this season - which puts them in the playoffs:
The way we come up with our DVOA and win-loss projections is actually explained on page xviii of the introduction. For win projections, the basic gist is that we come up with a range of possibilities based on DVOA over the past three seasons, quarterback performance, and the value of offseason additions and subtractions. Since it's a mean projection system, it'll naturally tend to cluster around 8-8. No team has a higher projection than 10.5 wins or lower than 5.2 wins. Based on wins, the Cowboys project as the No. 3 seed in the NFC, behind Seattle and Green Bay and ever so slightly ahead of Carolina. However, the Cowboys rank sixth in the NFC in projected DVOA, behind those three teams plus the Cardinals and Vikings.
As for best and worst case scenarios, I think we've seen an example of each the last two seasons, haven't we? Dallas probably won't be picking in the top five again next April, but everything will need to break right for the Cowboys to become Super Bowl contenders like they were two seasons ago. Our projections found a middle ground which leans closer to 2014 than 2015.
Dallas opens their regular season on Sunday, Sept. 11 at home against the New York Giants.
Follow our Dallas Cowboys news page for all the latest Cowboys news!
Back to the Dallas Cowboys Newsfeed