With all the uncertainty around Dez Bryant's contract situation, we know one thing for sure: Dez is getting PAID. Bryant has developed into one of the NFL's best wide receivers, and both he and the Cowboys know his next contract is going to dwarf his current one (five years, $11.811 million with $8.63m guaranteed).
Bryant will become a free agent at the end of this season...so let's take a look at the market, run through the rumor mill and take a look at what Bryant's next contract is going to look like, assuming he stays a Cowboy.
Calvin Johnson is the NFL's highest-paid receiver at the moment, making just over $16 million a year. Johnson's contract is worth up to $150m total over eight years, with $60 million guaranteed, and escalates to $18.25m in 2019, its final season.
Ian Rapaport of NFL.com has reported that Jerry Jones offered Bryant a 10-year, $114 million contract...but with only $20 million guaranteed. That pales in comparison to Johnson's contract, and Bryant reportedly wants something in the same neighborhood. For further comparisons, veteran Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald (the second highest-paid WR in the league) makes an average of $16,142,857 per year, with Percy Harvin of the Jets coming in third with a yearly average of $12,849,000.
Bryant is better than Harvin, but not as experienced as Fitzgerald or as productive as Johnson (not yet, anyway). We fully expect his eventual deal to end up slightly below those two, but well above Harvin's.
We also don't expect Bryant to accept any offer that doesn't eventually reach the level where Johnson's is now...but it seems likely to start out lower. Here's what we think would be an acceptable compromise for both Bryant and the Cowboys:
Year 1 (2015, age 27): $14m
Year 2 (2016, age 28): $14.5m
Year 3 (2017, age 29): $15m
Year 4 (2018, age 30): $15.5m
Year 5 (2019, age 31): $16m
Year 6 (2020, age 32): $16.5m
Year 7 (2021, age 33): $17m
This comes out to $108.5m total, just under where Johnson and Fitzgerald are, but we fully expect Jerry Jones to throw in at least a $15m signing bonus (Johnson's was $16m) and guarantee at least $50 million of the deal. That all comes to $123.5 million - a steep, but fair price for one of the NFL's top 3 wide receivers.
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