The Cowboys are 2-1 after last weekend's demolition of the St. Louis Rams, but they'll have to maintain their intensity if they want to leave San Diego with a win.
On paper, this has the makings of a classic trap game. It's easy to underestimate the 1-2 Chargers, and the Cowboys will have to make sure they aren't looking ahead to their matchup with the Denver Broncos a week later. Despite the Chargers' losing record and porous defense, they could be a very tricky opponent if their offense can get into a rhythm.
All of San Diego's games so far have been decided by three points, and their losses have come against a solid Houston Texans team and the surprisingly competent Tennessee Titans.
Philip Rivers is a streaky player, but on his day he's one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league. He has three dangerous targets in Antonio Gates, Malcolm Floyd and Eddie Royal (Rivers and Royal connected for five TDs in San Diego's first two games), and Dallas will need their secondary to build on their performance against St. Louis. The Cowboys are allowing just under 275 passing yards per game (they're ranked 22nd in the NFL), but that number doesn't tell the whole story.
The Cowboys secondary allowed 450 passing yards in week one against the Giants. There were several mistakes from the Cowboys defensive backs (most notably poor tackling that led to yards after contact), but the Giants were playing from behind the entire game (leading to increased pass attempts) and the defense came up with three interceptions. It's highly likely that Sunday's game in San Diego will be another shootout, but if the secondary can wrap up and cut down on mental errors, it shouldn't be as close as it was in week 1 (Dallas won 36-31).
Losing Anthony Spencer to the IR won't hurt the Cowboys much - it's easy to forget that Spencer played just 20 snaps through the first three games of the season.
San Diego hasn't looked good in the trenches so far - Philip Rivers has been sacked five times, and the Chargers have a total of 308 rushing yards so far this year. Dallas didn't effectively establish the run until week 3, but once they finally put everything together DeMarco Murray broke out for a huge game, running for 175 yards and a touchdown.
Dallas has one major edge on San Diego - the Cowboys have a potent offense (which should be even better if Miles Austin is cleared to play), and the Chargers have the worst defense in the league so far this season (32nd in passing yards allowed, and 28th in rushing yards allowed). If DeMarco Murray continues his excellent form (he's on pace to obliterate his career highs in every statistical category) and the Cowboys establish the run early, they could drop 40+ points on San Diego.
Prediction: DeMarco Murray has another huge game, running for 125+ yards and 2 TDs. The game will start out even, but eventually San Diego will turn the ball over and the Cowboys won't look back from there. Despite a three-touchdown game from Philip Rivers, the Cowboys will run out winners, 45-24.
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