Miles Austin is scheduled to return to action this weekend against the Washington Redskins after sitting out the last two games with a hamstring injury, but Austin's future with the Cowboys looks increasingly uncertain.
Austin signed a back-loaded seven-year, $57.168 million contract in 2010, the year after he exploded for 1320 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns. At the time, no one batted an eyelash - it seemed like money well spent for one of the league's top young receivers.
With each passing year, the move has looked worse and worse. Here's Austin's year-by-year production since he signed his contract:
2010: 16 games played, 1041 receiving yards, 15.1 yards per catch, 7 TDs
2011: 10 games played, 579 receiving yards, 13.5 yards per catch, 7 TDs
2012: 16 games played, 943 receiving yards, 14.3 yards per catch, 6 TDs
2013: (in progress) 3 games played, 125 receiving yards, 8.3 yards per catch, 0 TDs
This February, Austin restructured part of his deal, but it didn't include a pay cut - the restructured contract only moved additional money backwards as the Cowboys tried to free up short-term breathing room. Austin's productivity has no doubt been compromised by his hamstring problems (this isn't the first time they've caused him to miss games) but it looks increasingly likely that Austin won't return to the stellar form he showed before he signed his 7-year deal.
Complicating matters has been the recent emergence of rookie Terrance Williams. Williams exploded in Austin's absence, catching eleven passes for 222 yards and a touchdown. Williams' 151 yards against the Broncos last weekend were more than Austin has had in a single game since Week 4 in 2010. Austin will play as a slot receiver until he's 100% recovered from his injury, but if Williams continues to produce like that, Austin will be a third option with the contract of a megastar.
So, what can Dallas do? Paying superstar money to an average slot receiver over the next three years is an unappealing prospect for any team, and with Dallas preparing for a salary crunch (Austin was far from the only player to sign a back-loaded contract), here are the Cowboys' options:
Trade him: A trade seems like the most productive way out for Dallas, as they'll be able to ditch Austin's contract and get something (even if it's just a late-round pick) in return. There are a handful of teams with plenty of cap room who could be willing to gamble on Austin (the Oakland Raiders come to mind), but this is a long shot at best. Even the Raiders probably know better than to take a gamble that big, so the odds of unloading Austin through a trade are low. Odds: 10%
Keep him: Austin is 29. Despite his hamstring problems, he could have several very productive years ahead of him if he can get into great shape and stay healthy. There's no reason why an elite team can't have three top receivers - just look at the Denver Broncos. It isn't completely out of the question that Austin would be willing to restructure his contract again (and take a cut, this time around) if Dallas plays their cards right, and that would make this the best option all around (assuming Austin plays well enough to justify it). Odds: 20%
Cut him: Unfortunately, this is the most likely scenario by far. If Austin doesn't put together two or three huge games before the end of this season, it'll be time for Cowboys management to seriously consider letting him go. The emergence of Williams makes him expendable, and finding a trade partner willing to take on Austin's mammoth contract is going to be extremely difficult. Odds: 70%
Barring an unprecedented turnaround, it looks like this is going to be Austin's last season with the Cowboys. What do you think Dallas does with their wayward receiver? Leave your comments below.
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